Jim Mahon

Stetson b22, x2236

Wednesday 10-12 and by appointment

                                                     

 

POLITICAL ECONOMY 401

Fall 2004

POLITICS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY

 

 

This course considers the economics and politics of globalization.  It seeks to bring informed analysis to bear on important problems now faced by policymakers in the US, developing countries, and international organizations.  It builds on your training in economics and international relations to analyze a vague but vital topic in a disciplined way.

With respect to the major, Political Economy 401 does three things.  First, it acquaints you with important topics and theoretical approaches in the academic field known as "international political economy."  Second, it provides you with a foundation you will need in POEC 402 as you analyze public policy issues (even apparently domestic ones) in this "globalizing" world.  Finally, at the end of the course, it gives you a chance to practice the skills of collective policy analysis you will employ in the spring semester.

As the course proceeds, its main emphasis goes from the theoretical to the practical.  We begin by sampling several contemporary approaches to international political economy, spotlighting three that will reappear often in the course.  Then, the main part of the course covers the most important issue areas--trade, finance, the organization of production, immigration and culture, and the global commons.  In examining the first three, we move from economic theory to analytical political economy to case studies, ending up each section with discussions about the role of international organizations.  In the last section of the course we turn to particular policy issues in two weeks of research done in smaller groups.

Requirements and evaluation.  It is essential that all reading be completed and contemplated prior to the class meeting.  Attendance is required and classroom participation (quality, not just quantity) accounts for 10 percent of your final grade.  Four three-page papers, on each of the first four sections of the course, count for half.  (Please note the due dates:  some on Wednesdays at 4pm, others on Fridays in class).  Two reaction papers (two pages long, like the ones assigned in POEC 301), on the readings for the next two-and-a-half weeks, count for an additional 20 percent.  The final exercise counts for the remaining 20 percent, 5 for the group presentation and 15 for the paper.  Please follow all Honor Code guidelines in your written work.

Readings.  The following required books can be found at Water Street Books:

                  Jeffry Frieden and David Lake, eds., International Political Economy, 4th ed. (St

                              Martin's, 2000);

                  Michael Santoro, Pfizer: Global Protection of Intellectual Property, Harvard

                              Business School Case Study (1995); and

                  World Bank, Globalization, Growth, and Poverty (2002).

This book, highly recommended background reading, is on reserve at Sawyer:

                  Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, revised ed. (Anchor, 2001).

For those who do not subscribe to The Economist, the first assigned survey is also on E-reserve (click through FRANCIS homepage).  The URL’s for others, via Infotrac, as well as the URL’s for several other articles, are in this syllabus (and clickable via the version on the POEC website).   There are also photocopied packets of course readings.  The first packet is available immediately, in Seeley, and the rest will be ready in the second full week.


SCHEDULE

* = in packet, R = on reserve at Sawyer

 

 

 

9/10   Introduction and Overview

                “Globalization and Its Critics,” Economist survey 9/29/01.  Eight articles, beginning with

                http://www.economist.com/surveys/showsurvey.cfm?issue=20010929 (for subscribers).  Non-subscribers go to E-reserve or click here: http://ereserves.williams.edu/eres/coursepage.aspx?cid=70

The password is “401.”

 

 

I.   Approaches to International Political Economy

 

9/14     The “New Institutional Economics” and Public Choice

Douglass North, “Institutions and Economic Growth:  A Historical Introduction,” article 3 in Frieden and Lake.

                Paul Collier, “Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and Their Implications,” World Bank, June 2000.*

                Roland Vaubel, "A Public Choice View of International Organization," in Vaubel & Willett, eds., The Political Economy of InternationalOrganizations: A Public Choice Approach (1991).*

               

                These readings introduce two closely related schools of political economy.  Both begin from a premise that political actors are narrowly self-interested maximizers of some combination of power and personal wealth (the mix depends on the circumstances and the author).  In a fundamental way, it is the economist’s approach to explaining politics.  Public choice theories (recall James Buchanan in POEC 301) apply this to analyses of voting and public finance, with most practitioners writing about the USA.  Vaubel obviously is not one of the latter, nor is Collier, whose bold paper is shaped by long experience in Africa.  North and the “new institutional economists” (not to be confused with Thorstein Veblen and the old ones) use similar assumptions to raise issues that Adam Smith sometimes glossed over.  They do not assume the presence of an effective government to channel everyone’s self-interest into beneficial directions; rather, for them the greater or lesser effectiveness of institutions is a major reason for wealth inequality among different societies and at different times. 

1.        North states that “Third World countries are poor because the institutional constraints define a set of payoffs to political/economic activity that do not encourage productive activity.” What does he mean by this statement?  What evidence does he provide?  Is it plausible?

2.        What, for Collier, explains rebellion and civil war?  Does his explanation seem right for cases you are familiar with—say, the Chinese Revolution or the U.S. Civil War? 

3.        What, according to Vaubel, does the sober eye of public choice analysis add to our understanding of intergovernmental organizations?  Can you think of any other examples where such an approach sheds light?

 

      

9/17   Power, Dependence, and Economic Sanctions  

                Albert O. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (1945), read pp. 3-12, skim 13-23, read 23-33.*

                Daniel Drezner, “The Hidden Hand of Economic Coercion,” International Organization 57:3 (summer 2003).*

 

                These readings focus on the economic exercise of power via the asymmetrical interdependence that trade relations typically create.  The first reading is from Hirschman’s first book, shaped by his experiences in World War Two, and animated by the central insight (which he believed was put into practice by Hjalmar Schacht’s trade policies in the mid-1930’s, under the Nazis) that a gain from trade can be seen as that which is in the power of your trading partner to take away.  This is the thread that connects the Hirschman analysis with the sanctions literature.  Although the connection between trade and power is usually an implicit one (allowing us to forget it exists), economic sanctions remind us of it.  The second reading is a good recent summary by an expert on this stuff (Williams PoliEc ’90) criticizing a widely cited IIE study (one that used to be assigned in this course).

1.        Can you think of recent parallels to Hirschman’s description of trade and power between large and small countries?  Is his argument plausible?

2.        Does Hirschman’s analysis mean that powerful countries face their own tradeoff between income and power?  (That is, do they have to bargain away income in order to get more influence?)

3.        How does Drezner differ in method from the study by Hufbauer, Schott and Elliot (IIE, 1990) that he cites?  What does his focus lead him to conclude?

4.        How do Drezner’s results square with Hirschman’s analysis? 

 

 

9/21    The International System

                “Historical Perspectives” (introduction to section II), from Frieden and Lake, pp. 69-71.

                Dani Rodrik, “How Far Will International Economic Integration Go?,JEP 14:1 (Winter 2000).*

                Stephen D. Krasner, “State Power and the Structure of International Trade,” in Frieden and Lake, article 1.

Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth, “American Primacy in Perspective,” and

Stanley Hoffman, “Clash of Globalizations,” both from Foreign Affairs July/Aug 2002.*

 

While the last readings focused on economic power in bilateral relations, these consider the international system as a whole.  Yet they differ on where they start.  Rodrik begins from open-economy macroeconomics to discuss varieties of world order and their connection with national economic policies.  Beginning from politics, Krasner’s classic article argues that free trade requires a hegemonic power.  Also using politics as the point of departure, the articles by Brooks and Wohlforth and by Hoffman measure the present hegemony of the USA and discuss what this implies for world order, including world economic relations. 

A word about the context for these arguments.  Recalling international relations theory, “realism” broadly means that national state power is the last word in an anarchic world, and governments are assumed to dedicate themselves to the pursuit of this power in its various forms.  (A bilateral interstate model of realism is at work in the readings for the last class.)  Neorealism” is realism applied to the system as a whole, drawing conclusions about international alignments from the pattern of relative power capabilities among individual states.  In its strongest form it today predicts (cf. Kenneth Waltz’s recent writings) that our current unipolar system (US hegemony) is unstable and will soon give way, via “balancing” behavior by other states, to something else. 

1.        Would you revise Rodrik’s international relations trilemma today?  If so, how?

2.        Does Krasner believe that we don’t need international organizations to manage international market freedom?

3.        How do Brooks and Wohlforth connect the realm of international security to international economic relations?  Are you persuaded by their argument?

4.        Hoffman wants globalization to take account of objections presented by weaker countries in the international system.  Why would it ever be in the US’s—or the world’s—interest to do so? 

 

9/22  Three-page essay due at 4pm

 

 

 

II.   Trade

 

9/24   The Economics of Trade

                World Bank, GGP, chap. 1, part 1 (pp. 23-41).

“Trade,” (introduction to section V) in Frieden and Lake, pp. 299-301.

Coughlin, Chrystal, and Wood, "Protectionist Trade Policies," article 19 in Frieden and Lake.

                SKIM Krugman, “Myths and Realities of U.S. Competitiveness,” in Pop Internationalism, 1998.*

                Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik, “Trade Policy and Economic Growth:  A Skeptic’s Guide to the Cross-national Evidence” NBER Working Paper 7081 (1999).  Available at http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7081.pdf

                SKIM David Dollar and Aart Kraay, “Trade, Growth, and Poverty,” (2002).  Available at

http://econ.worldbank.org/files/33773_TradeGrowthPovertyEJFeature.pdf

                Robert E. Baldwin, “Openness and Growth:  What’s the Empirical Relationship?,” NBER Working Paper 9578 (March 2003).*

               

                These readings pull together a variety of works on trade economics.  They cover a lot of ground, though with some overlap, which is why you may skim several of them.  The World Bank chapter opens with an historical summary of international economic relations and proceeds to argue for the benefits of openness for development.  The Frieden and Lake introductory pages complement this account with a brief summary that is more institutionally focused.  The first article from their reader gives an overview of Ricardian theory and more recent developments such as strategic trade theory in a discussion of arguments about protectionism.  (The piece by Krugman ends up at strategic trade theory, and his misgivings about turning it into an argument for industrial policy, by way of a rebuttal of the argument that trade deficits reflect dangerous losses of competitiveness.)  The Rodriguez and Rodrik paper casts doubt on the empirical evidence for the benefits of trade opening, hitting especially hard at an earlier version of Dollar and Kraay’s paper, on which the World Bank account is largely based.  (That’s why the later version, linked above, sounds so defensive.)  Pay special attention to the data on which Figure 1.10—which actually refers to the criterion used to divide “more” from “less” globalized countries.  The Baldwin paper tries to settle the issue by reviewing a several decades of economic literature.     

  1. Coughlin, Chrystal and Wood go through the standard neo-classical arguments for free trade.  What assumptions do they make about the firms engaging in trade?  What happens when a government institutes protectionist policies under these assumptions?
  2. What aspects of international trade caused economists to question neo-classical assumptions as a basis for theorizing about the results of trade?  How do increasing returns to scale and external economies of scale differ from each other?
  3. In order to create comparative advantage for the US, which industry or industries would you choose to protect?  Why?  How?
  4. What is the significance of World Bank Figure 1.10 and the dividing line between “more globalized” and “less globalized” countries for the Dollar/ Kraay and World Bank arguments?  Do you agree with this classification?
  5. So, who wins the argument between Dollar/ Kraay and Rodriguez/ Rodrik?   

 

 

(Sun.) 9/26  VIDEO  “Made in America?  Winners and Losers,” 1992 PBS, 58 min.  7 and 9pm, Griffin 2

 

 

9/28   Domestic Politics and Trade Policy

Bruce Ingersoll, “Big Sugar Seeks Bailout, Gives Money to Help Get Way,” WSJ 4/27/00.*

Scot Lehigh, “Trade-Offs:  Labor as We Might, China Deal Won’t Be Fair for All,” Boston Globe, May 28, 2000 (from NEXIS website).*

Robert Baldwin, "The Political Economy of Trade Policy," JEconPersp, 3(4), Fall 1989, to p. 131 only.*

James Alt and Michael Gilligan, “The Political Economy of Trading States,” article 21 in Frieden and Lake.

                Richard B. Freeman, “Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?,” article 22 in Frieden and Lake.

Dani Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? , chap. 2.*

Jeff Madrick, “Questioning Free Trade Mathematics,” NYT 3/18/04.*

Steven Greenhouse, “Employers Take a United Stand in Insisting on Labor Concessions,” NYT 7/11/03.*

 

                Rather than asking about the desirability of free trade, these readings are mainly devoted to explaining why free trade, which economists regard as the obviously best policy, has historically been the exception rather than the rule.  As such, they are good examples of a kind of political economy that looks behind policy outcomes to find their political causes.  The Baldwin article is a (still) widely cited summary of the early literature; its discussion of the first (self-interest) approach is revisited in the Alt and Gillespie piece, but its second approach (“social concerns”) is not.  (The Ingersoll and Lehigh articles are examples of these two approaches.)  The two articles from the reader are extensions of the same literature.  The Alt and Gilligan is a step-by-step summary of how to reason from the economic theory of trade, through a consideration of how factor characteristics and other economic factors matter to politics, to an examination of how a country’s existing institutions may further affect political outcomes. 

The last four readings come back to the economics of trade from different perspectives.  Freeman reviews the economic evidence about trade and wages and casts doubt on the importance of trade.  Rodrik claims that conventional methods of measuring the impact of trade on wages are inadequate so that the impact of trade is in fact very large (Feenstra, later in the course, makes a similar move).  Madrick also seeks to broaden the assessment of trade liberalization by noting that adjustment costs, borne by workers, are often underestimated.  The last article looks at the threat of job loss. 

  1. Explain Baldwin’s two approaches to explaining why protection is so common, despite the objections of economists and other apparently reasonable people.  What would count as evidence for one or the other explanation?
  2. Looking at the “social concerns approach,” could this be made into a case for embracing free trade anyway, but with Pareto-improving compensation for those who lose from trade?  Looking at Alt and Gilligan, what might be some of the barriers to a compensation scheme?
  3. The Alt and Gilligan piece can be read as a backhand critique of two well-known models of the political economy of trade—the “concentrated benefits, dispersed costs” idea of Pareto et al. and the factor scarcity model of Rogowski.  Under what circumstances does their framework predict trade policy outcomes that differ from those predicted by the other two?  In your judgment, are these circumstances likely to be common?

4.        What is factor price equalization and how does it relate to these arguments?

  1. How does increased elasticity of demand affect unskilled labor’s wages?  Job security? 

 

 

10/1  Mountain Day

 

 

10/5   Trade and Global Inequality

World Bank, GGP, chap. 1, part 2 (pp. 38-51).

Arthur MacEwan, “Free Markets, International Commerce, and Economic Development,” from Real World Globalization, seventh edition, ed. Alejandro Reuss, et al. (Dollars and Sense, 2002).*

Ha-Joon Chang, “Kicking Away the Ladder:  The ‘Real’ History of Free Trade,” Foreign Policy in Focus December 2003.* (Also at http://www.fpif.org/pdf/papers/SRtrade2003.pdf)

 “Convergence, Period,” The Economist 7/18/02* and link http://papers.nber.org/papers/w8904.pdf  to Xavier Sala-I-Martin, “The Disturbing ‘Rise’ in Global Income Inequality,” NBER Working Paper 8904 (June 2002).

 

                These articles focus on a question in economics that has had great importance in the political debates over globalization:  what is the effect of trade on global inequality?   The World Bank provides a hopeful overview.  MacEwan takes up a theme you first read in the Rodrik article on economic integration, to the effect that the WTO now bans the sort of policies that led to sustained and equitable growth in east Asia (even though advocates of globalization often claim these cases as proof of the benefits of openness).  Chang deepens this critique by arguing that protectionism is exactly what most of today’s developed countries practiced when first developing, and that now they want to “kick away the ladder” of infant-industry protectionism when poor countries try to use it.  The Sala-I-Martin article (summarized in The Economist) says that global inequality is decreasing.

1.        For the World Bank authors, what accounts for people being “left behind”?  Do you agree?

2.        What basic mistake does Sala-I-Martin think other analysts have made in their calculations of global inequality trends? 

3.        Does Sala-I-Martin’s analysis strengthen the case for openness, or the case for the egalitarian/mercantilist policies MacEwan and Chang recommend?

 

 

10/8    The Politics of the WTO 

“The WTO in Brief” and additional links at http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/inbrief_e/inbr00_e.htm

                Ralph Nader and Lori Wallach, "GATT, NAFTA, and the Subversion of the Democratic Process," in Jerry Mander and Edward Goldsmith, eds., The Case Against the Global Economy (Sierra Club, 1996).*

                Walden Bello, “Reforming the WTO is the Wrong Agenda,” Danaher and Burbach, eds., Globalize This!  The Battle Against the WTO and Corporate Rule (2000).*

                World Bank, GGP, chap. 2 part 1 (pp. 53-66).

                Public Citizen articles at http://www.citizen.org/trade/wto/articles.cfm?ID=10441

                Guy de Jonquieres and Frances Williams, “Top Nations Hail Deal” and “Trade Deal Marks End to Talks about Talks,” Financial Times 8/2/04 [NEXIS}.*

 

                These readings focus on the other big, current issue in international trade—multilateral trade-promoting institutions such as the WTO.   Beginning with the overview piece on the WTO’s website, after reading each of the critical articles you can go back to the site to see if the arguments of the critics are adequately answered.  The Nader and Wallach piece discusses the genesis of the WTO in outraged terms with detailed arguments about the undemocratic nature of the agreement.   Bello’s article, written after Seattle, gives a critical history of the origins and provisions of the WTO, with a spotlight on how its provisions affect poorer countries.   The Public Citizen website brings you up to date.  The World Bank book defends the WTO, with some emphasis on the hopes for a Doha development round.  The articles from the FT give its happy-talk coverage of the apparently successful Geneva meetings.   

1.        On the WTO website and in the writings of the critics, what theories of international politics do you see operating?  Specifically, where do they see international power acting, and who wields it?

2.        Consider the critics now in the spirit of positive (explanatory) political economy and our previous readings on the subject.  What do they tell us about the politics of trade that helps explain why advocates of free trade would want “fast track” and a powerful WTO?

3.        In POEC 301 you read Milton Friedman saying, “if government is to exercise power, better in the county than in the state, better in the state than in Washington.  If I do not like what my local community does,…I can move to another local community.”…”The great tragedy of the drive to centralization…is that it is mostly led by men of good will who will be the first to rue its consequences” (Capitalism and Freedom, 3).  Would Friedman, and should good liberals, line up with the critics of the WTO?

4.        How do theories of international relations help us understand the results of the Doha round so far?

 

10/10   Three-page essay due at 5pm

 

 

10/12  No class, Reading Period

 

 

 

III.   Capital Movements

 

         Resources on financial-market terms and concepts:

Global Investor glossary   http://www.finance-glossary.com/pages/home.htm

Bloomberg financial glossary   http://www.bloomberg.com/analysis/glossary/bfglosa.htm

Shorter version   http://www.lifelong-learners.com/opt/SYL/s10node1.php3#keywd:gu

 

 

10/15   Overview, History and Theory

                “Money and Finance” (introduction to section IV), from Frieden and Lake, pp. 193-97.

                Barry Eichengreen, “Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System,” article 14 in Frieden and Lake.          

[optional] Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, chap. 7.R

                J. Bradford DeLong, “Financial Crises in the 1890’s and the 1990’s:  Must History Repeat?,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1999).*

                “Global Finance,” Economist survey 5/1/03.  Eight articles, beginning at:  http://www.economist.com/surveys/showsurvey.cfm?issue=20030503 (for subscribers).   For non-subscribers, Infotrac URL’s for the articles are here:

A Cruel Sea of Capital

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_a+cruel+sea+of+capital___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!13?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

Catching the Tide

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_catching+the+tide___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!14?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

Hot and Cold Running Money

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_hot+and+cold+running+money___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!16?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

The Trouble with Banks

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_trouble+with+banks___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!17?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

Sudden Storms

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_sudden+storms___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!18?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

Safety First

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_safety+first___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!19?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

Shipbuilding

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_Shipbuilding___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!20?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

A Slightly Circuitous Route

http://web5.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/633/164/52790653w5/purl=rc2_BCPM_1_a+slightly+circuitous+route___5/2003______economist________________________________________________&dyn=sig!21?sw_aep=mlin_w_willcoll

 

                Here is an overview of key problems in global finance, historically and today.  Eichengreen considers whether the analysis you read by Krasner can be applied to monetary relations, too.   DeLong’s work not only touches on issues we will cover (dollarization, capital controls), it also compares two periods in an attempt to discern the relative importance of capital mobility and international moral hazard in creating or aggravating crises.   Compared with previous Economist surveys on this topic, the 2003 version is less defensive and, in view of the equity bubble of the late 1990’s and scholarship on information problems in asset markets, readier to acknowledge lapses from market perfection in global finance. 

  1. With regard to international regimes, why are monetary relations different from trade?
  2. Why does DeLong conclude that financial markets are inherently prone to instability?  What does this imply for national economic policy?
  3. How does international capital mobility affect monetary policymaking?  Fiscal policy?  Do you agree with the survey’s recommendations about how to sail in a “cruel sea of capital”?  (Do they confirm the existence of what Friedman called the “golden straitjacket” or not?)

 

 

10/19   Crises and Contagion in Emerging Markets:  Reason for Capital Controls?

                David Wessel and Bob Davis, “How Global Crisis Grew Despite Efforts…,” WSJ 9/24/98.*

Frederic S. Mishkin, “Global Financial Instability,” JEP 13:4 (Fall 1999).*

James Tobin, “A Tax on International Currency Transactions,” UN Human Development Report, 1994, p. 70.*

                Rupert Cornwell, “Tobin Tax Gains Global Currency,” London Independent, 9/2/01 [NEXIS].*

Joseph Stiglitz, “Capital Market Liberalization and Exchange Rate Regimes:  Risk Without Reward,” and

Sebastian Edwards, “Capital Mobility, Capital Controls, and Globalization in the 21st Century,” both from Annals of the AAPSS 579 (Jan 2002).*

                Ian Katz, “Greenback Magic?,Business Week International Edition, March 13, 2000 [NEXIS]

 

                These readings are about the problem of contagion in world financial markets, especially among middle-income “emerging markets,” and what to do about it.  The first two were written in the wake of the Asian crisis of 1997-98.  Mishkin’s is both an overview and a spotlight on domestic financial weaknesses as key causes of instability in Mexico and east Asia.  Following are two bits on the “Tobin tax,” an idea that has created a much stronger buzz outside the USA than within it.  Stiglitz lays out his case against free capital movements for developing countries—and against the IMF and US Treasury for advocating capital account liberalization in the early 1990’s (much of this is also in his recent Globalization and its Discontents).   Important here is the Malaysian case—in which controls are thought to have avoided the worst contagion during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, while not permanently alienating investors, as some had feared.  Edwards responds, based mostly on Chilean experience.  The article refers to another response to the specter of crisis—adopting a major currency (in this case, the US dollar) as your own.

  1. To what extent has financial instability had a local origin and not a systemic one?  What are the local problems that set it off? 
  2. Can you figure out why Tobin was championed by anti-globalization protesters—and why he rebuked them? 
  3. Do you find Stiglitz or Edwards more persuasive?
  4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of dollarization?  Would you favor the addition of another Federal Reserve district headquartered in, say, Montevideo?
  5. Why didn’t Ecuador adopt the Euro?

 

 

10/22   Global Imbalances

                     Martin Wolf, “A Global Market Economy Needs a Global Currency,” “Asia’s Game with America is a Long Way from Ending,” and “America is Now on the Comfortable Path to Ruin,” all from Financial Times (4, 11, and 18 Aug. 2004) [NEXIS].*

                     Ronald McKinnon and Gunther Schnabl, “The Return of Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia,” available at http://www.stanford.edu/~mckinnon/papers/ReturnN.pdf

                     Wynne Godley, Alex Izurieta, and Genaro Zezza, “Why Net Exports Must Now Be the Motor for US Growth,” at http://www.cerf.cam.ac.uk/publications/files/USJul04.pdf

                     David Malpass, “Their Money, Our Strength,” WSJ 8/5/04.*

 

                These readings shift our focus from the global spread of crises in relatively marginal areas of the  world financial system to current major imbalances in the core of the system.  We begin with Martin Wolf’s series from summer 2004:  considering that this author just came out with a book called Why Globalization Works, the article titles ought to get your attention.  We then look more closely at his argument by reading two of the articles he cites.  One looks at the reasons for today’s unusual situation in which the major international creditor countries build up balances in the main deficit country’s currency in part because their own currencies are little used internationally.  The second takes the main, related macro financial balances (the fisc, the balance of payments, and net household saving), links them to projections of output growth, and comes to alarming conclusions for the US.  The last article says not to worry because the best outcome is also the most likely.

1.        Why is the issue of dollar pegging important to the problem of macro imbalance? 

2.        So, is America on the comfortable path to ruin?

3.        Do you agree with Wolf’s call for a global currency (that is not the dollar)?

 

 

10/26   What Role for the IMF?

Joseph Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents (2002), first part of chap. 8 and middle part of chap. 9 (pp. 195-206, 222-44).*

Milton Friedman, “Markets to the Rescue,” WSJ, October 13, 1998 [interactive edition].*

                Report of the International Financial Institution Advisory Commission [Meltzer Report], March 2000, Executive summary (only its first three pages, on the IMF, are relevant here).*  View entire document at http://www.house.gov/jec/imf/meltzer.htm

                Brad DeLong, “The Meltzer Report,” and comments on the webpage, from http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TotW/meltzer.html *

                Rodrigo de Rato, “The IMF at 60,” on IMF website:  http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2004/061404.htm

                Kenneth Rogoff, “The IMF Strikes Back,” Foreign Policy 134 (2003)* and at http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2003/021003.htm; and “The Sisters at 60,” Economist 7/24/04.*

                Bretton Woods Project, latest articles on IMF at http://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/institution/imf/index.shtml

 

                Like the last section, here we finish by asking about international institutional solutions, in this case the IMF.  On this there has been a lot of ink spilled in the past few years, and there are some changes afoot too.  The focus of most of this is on the Fund’s role during financial crises in “emerging markets” and on the attitude of the Fund and Bank toward poorer countries generally.  The excerpts from Stiglitz’s book follow up his argument against capital liberalization with a critique of the IMF.  Next is Milton Friedman’s 1998 critique of Fund from a libertarian direction—his view is shared by many in the Republican party (and the Wall Street Journal), and in the same spirit is the so-called Meltzer Report (you don’t have to read the entire thing!).  Brad DeLong’s short piece puts it in perspective.  Also interesting are the comments on his essay—but note that they are printed in reverse chronological order.  (Note also that Meltzer has been endorsed by left critics of the Fund, who advocate its abolition and ignore the free-market beliefs of its main author and majority.  See, for example, Walden Bello in Focus on Trade, May 2000, http://www.focusweb.org/focus/pd/apec/fot/fot48.htm ).  The last readings are reflections on the Fund at 60 from its current Managing Director, two essays by its former chief economist, and a link to one of the best organizations opposing current IMF-WB policies. 

  1. On what basis does Stiglitz blame the IMF for the Asian Financial Crisis?  Do his suggested reforms appear adequate to solve the problems he alleges?
  2. What market mechanisms does Friedman think would provide stability and end moral hazard in international finance?   
  3. What definition of moral hazard is DeLong using (note here his replies to comments)?  Does it agree with that of Friedman?
  4. Does Rogoff’s 2004 call for the IMF to get out of the lending business agree with his defense of the Fund as mitigating rather than causing crises (doctors and plagues, etc) and his earlier defense of its actions? 
  5. What might Martin Wolf have to say to this debate?

 

10/27  Three-page paper due at 4pm

 

 

 

IV.   Organization of Production

 

10/29   Changes in Corporate Structure and the Rise of “Outsourcing”

                “Production” (introduction to section III), in Frieden and Lake, pp. 141-44.

Shah Tarzi, "Third World Governments and MNC’s," article 10 in Frieden and Lake.

                "Big is Back: A Survey of Multinationals," The Economist, 6/24/95.*

                Robert  Feenstra, “Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy,” JEP 12:4 (Fall 1998).*

                Kathryn Kranhold, “China’s Price for Market Entry…,” WSJ 2/26/04.*

 

                In recent years, many multinational corporations have changed their structure fundamentally, taking advantage of freer trade and capital movements to move toward global productive structures that are differentiated across countries according to labor costs and other factors.  This has important implications for how we think about international economic integration.   The Tarzi article gives some general background, in terms of the relative bargaining power of firms and states.  The Economist survey documents this shift.  It also asks about its causes and implications, both for policymakers and for managers.   Feenstra notes the rise of intra-firm transactions and subcontracting, and considers what these trends mean for our thinking about the benefits and drawbacks of trade.  The last article pulls it all together by looking at the price the Chinese government can now ask of global firms seeking to enter its market.

  1. Why, according to Tarzi, does the relative bargaining power of firms and governments change over time?
  2. Describe the “old” organization of the typical MNC, comparing it to the “new.”  What policies and global forces shaped the old one?  On what policies does the new one depend?
  3. Some people have recently hailed the rise of the “virtual corporation,” in which everyone except a few managers and HR people works under specific and time-limited contracts, organized on the basis of the tasks at hand, and ready to break apart and move on when the task ends—a lot like Hollywood.  What do the readings for today tell you about how this works, and whether or not it is the wave of the future?
  4. With the rise of international intra-firm transactions, do we have to revise our conclusion that free trade is beneficial?
  5. Based on the theory of the firm, why would global firms want to keep overseas operations in-house?  How does the strategy of the Chinese government relate to this goal? 

 

 

11/2   Global Firms and Rich-Country Governments:  A Race to the Bottom?

                Duane Swank, “Political Institutions and Welfare State Restructuring,” chap. 7 in Paul Pierson, ed., The New Politics of the Welfare State (2001).*

                Byron Dorgan, “Global Shell Games,” Washington Monthly July/Aug 2000.*

Vito Tanzi, “Globalization and the Future of Social Protection,” Scottish J Pol Ec 49:1 (Feb 02).*

Duane Swank, “International Capital Mobility and Taxation,” second part (pp. 244-56) of chap. 7 from Global Capital, Political Institutions, and Policy Change in Developed Welfare States (2002).*

                John Plender, “Counting the Cost of Globalization” and “A Big Squeeze for Governments,” from Financial Times, 21-22 July 2004.*               

 

                These papers concern relations between firms and governments, with a spotlight on welfare states and corporate taxes.  They take on the idea that social protections are being reduced as mobile capital subjects governments, now competing to welcome it, to an unrelenting “race to the bottom.”  Swank’s articles take on the issues of welfare spending and taxation respectively.  In between, Tanzi (a longtime tax guy at the IMF) updates his argument about globalization-enhanced “fiscal termites” that he thinks (as opposed to Swank) will eat away at the revenue foundations of the welfare state.  The Dorgan piece has a similar view, as he argues for the “unitary tax” or Worldwide Combined Reporting, under which global firms would not be able to diminish their tax exposure by artificially shifting taxable streams (profits, etc.) from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions.  As he nicely points out, “transfer pricing” by MNCs often leads to absurdities.  The last two articles are investigative pieces recently published by the FT.  

  1. Swank agrees that rich countries have trimmed welfare states, but finds considerable differences in depth and timing of this retrenchment, leading him to find (in a multivariate analysis) no role for capital mobility.  What reasons does he offer instead?  Is he persuasive?
  2. Swank also argues that taxation is not a big problem.  Can you reconcile his argument with Dorgan’s and Vito Tanzi’s arguments?  With Plender’s observations?

 

 

11/5   Labor Conditions:  Should Liberalization of Trade Depend on Labor Standards?

Terry Collingsworth, J. William Gould and Pharis Harvey, "Labor and Free Trade:  Time for a Global New Deal," Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 1994.*

Jonathan Silvers, “Child Labor in Pakistan,” Atlantic Monthly, Feb 1996.*

Kaushik Basu, “Child Labor:  Cause, Consequence, and Cure,” J Econ Lit 37 (Sept 1999), sections 1-3, 6, 8-9.*

               

                Here is another realm in which critics of globalization fear that all wage-earners (though some more directly than others) are subjected to downward pressure on their compensation.  The question today is whether it is the right thing to impose labor standards globally, enforced via trade sanctions on offending countries.  The first article answers this in the affirmative.  If you are familiar with the debate (as I assume you are), you can merely skim it, since its basic argument is referred to in section 8 of the Basu article.   However, even if one disagrees with the proposal for global standards, one could concede that on the question of child labor there would be more likelihood of common ground.  The piece from the Atlantic vividly shows the interaction among poverty, powerlessness, and lawless politics that is common in labor markets in poor countries.  The Basu article shows the many aspects of this issue and the spotty state of the economic literature.  Most important here are sections 2, 3, 6, and 8.  Not assigned here but worthy of further reading is an IIE study by Freeman (see above) and Kimberley Elliott, Can Labor Standards Improve Under Globalization? (2003).

  1. So if Nike cleans up its act, is the problem solved?  How do we know they really have?  What about the effect on labor markets?
  2. Are the problems in mid-1990’s Pakistan the result of bad politics, rather than mere poverty? 
  3. Under what conditions are government interventions on child labor most helpful?  What kinds of intervention are best? 
  4. Do governments or people of other countries have a right to stop child labor in Pakistan?
  5. Is the US violating labor standards when its states allow companies to set up shop in prisons?

 

 

11/9   Intellectual Property Rights:  TRIPs as Corporate Tool?   Pick days for reaction papers

                Michael Santoro, Pfizer: Global Protection of Intellectual Property, Harvard Business School Case Study, 9-392-073, April 6, 1995.

WTO, “Basic Introduction to TRIPS.”*  View more details on provisions at http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/trips_e/trips_e.htm

Vandana Shiva and Radha Holla-Bhar, "Piracy by Patent:  The Case of the Neem Tree," in Mander and Goldsmith, eds.*            

                “Patently Problematic,” Economist 9/12/02.*

                Jagdish Bhagwati, “Patents and the Poor,” Financial Times 9/16/02.*

                Elizabeth Becker, “Poor Nations Can Purchase Cheap Drugs under Accord,” NYT 8/31/03.*               

               

                These readings take on the issue of intellectual property and its international regulation, with a focus on the pharmaceutical industry.   Here we come back to the WTO (its TRIPS agreement) and the critiques of Bello and others.  It has been alleged that big MNC drug makers routinely take traditional medicines, patent them, and then sue traditional practitioners for patent infringement—with the support of TRIPS.  Drug companies respond that much of this goes on in countries whose weak IP enforcement allows the production of cheap knock-offs of patented drugs.  After the Pfizer case study, the first print article covers the most famous case where traditional and patented knowledge collided.  The other articles look at various aspects of IP rules over pharmaceuticals and their relation to poorer countries.

  1. So who is more guilty of “piracy,” the drug companies or the governments that allow local manufacturers to flout patents in making cheap imitation drugs?
  2. What considerations does a developing country face in choosing an intellectual property rights regime?
  3. How did TRIPS become part of the WTO if it is against the interests of developing countries?  What role did Pfizer play?
  4. What would a just and useful intellectual property rights regime look like?

 

11/10  Three-page essay due at 4pm

 

 

 

V.  National Interests vs. International Economics?

 

11/12   Immigration Economics

        George Borjas, Heaven’s Door, chaps. 4-6.* 

                Jagdish Bhagwati, “Behind the Green Card,” A Stream of Windows, 1998, pp. 319-36.*

World Bank, GGP, chap. 2 part 3 (pp. 76-83).

 

This section of the course is about the ways in which culture and ter