Public Opinion and Political Behavior

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A Brief Introduction:

The focus of this course is the role of public opinion in democracy. The influence of public opinion on public affairs and popular governments is a relatively new phenomenon in the history of governments (largely subsequent to the American and French revolutions). While there are appears to be few, if any, alternatives to popular sovereignty (the justification of political authority by popular consent), the consideration of when and how well the populace plays out its role in determining the direction of authority remains, as it has long been, a controversial issue. We can see from recent events why doubts about reliance on the public remain: The American public quickly becomes interested in drought and starvation in Somalia, yet starvation is not a problem just experienced in Somalia. For example, Americans remain uninterested in an even more serious case of famine in North Korea even as at least some Americans object to the international sanctions against Iraq because of the harm they cause to Iraqi civilians.

Some have claimed that American journalists successfully provoked the American public to go to war (the Spanish-American War - “Remember the Maine”), or to withdraw from war (another Viet Nam) or sought to encourage American involvement in a war (Bosnia). In all these examples, it is appropriate to ask if the public’s interest in politics is sufficiently stable, thoughtfully based, and able to resist efforts at manipulation whether by elites, events, or journalists.

After reviewing the basics of the controversy we shall explore the character, sources and dynamics of public opinion in American politics.

There are many interesting questions awaiting us this semester. Among these are the following: How do events and crises influence the formation of public opinion? Which psychological, sociological, and political variables affect the formation of political attitudes? When and under what conditions do pressure groups and the mass media influence the formation of public opinion on current domestic and international issues? When do mass beliefs alter individual voter's choices? When and how does public opinion influence political leaders?

 


 

Grading:

Goals of the course: We shall explore what role public opinion ought to play in a democracy as well as what role public opinion does play in American political life.
You should consider the following question as we proceed through the course:

Public opinion may play an influential role in shaping and/or reacting to political, social and economic elites. In your view, is this good or bad (and, under what circumstances)?


Summary of Course Requirements:

  1. class participation: 15%
  2. midterm: 20%
  3. final exam: 35%
  4. research paper: 30%

The course has two spheres of work. The first is mastery of the course readings, lectures, and participation in class discussions. Students are expected to have read and considered the course readings in preparation for each class. Students are also expected to participate in class discussions and to be ready to do so on the subject of the day. Mastery of this element of the course is evaluated by class participation (15% of the total grade), the midterm examination (20% of the total grade), and the final examination (35% of the total grade).

The second component is a medium length research paper (8 - 12 pages). You may select any current area or topic that bears on the role or impact of public opinion in American society. You can choose from either of two kinds of research paper.

The first option is to prepare a case study of some political event in which public opinion is of central interest. It is import to use a variety of sources, perhaps also keep a journal of how the topic is covered in the national press, as well as reports on the level of public interest and public opinion on the matter (sources suggested below). You might even do some comparative analysis by finding some comparable historical example of the same or related topic and then analyze the current and historically antecedent example. How does the topic emerge? How is it covered in the media? What public attention does it receive? How does the “framing” of the story emerge? How does the story evolve? What are the political ramifications (on the participants, on public opinion, on political leaders, on related political issues)? Does the story disappear? When and why?

The second option is to do a time series analysis of some specific issue, event, or campaign, using iPOLL (the on-line data library of all American polls from 1935 to today), to explore the change of public opinion over time on that issue, person, or office. Then, using a method demonstrated in Brody’s book on public opinion and the Presidency, develop and test the explanation that public opinion follows news coverage.

The research paper will be due: Thursday, 5 PM, Dec. 6th.

 

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Reading Assignments:

Course Packet to be obtained at place and times to be announced. The materials in the course packet are noted in the daily readings as CD (course document).

 

Week of September 3rd
   
Class Meeting 1 - Introduction
 
Week of September 10th

The first question to be considered is the proper role of opinion and knowledge in societies governed by popular sovereignty. As we shall see there is an old dispute about the proper role of the public in directing public affairs. We shall begin with classic statements of the disagreement between Aristotle and Plato and then move to the contemporary treatment of the dispute.
   
Class Meeting 2 - Knowledge and Opinion and the Regime of Politics
 
  CD - 1 Plato “The Simile of the Cave” (from The Republic)
CD - 2 Aristotle “How Far Should The Good Man and Good Citizen Be Distinguished?” and “The Wisdom of Collective Judgments” (from The Politics)
 
Class Meeting 3 – Contemporary versions of an old dispute
 
  CD - 3 Walter Lippmann, “The World Outside and the Pictures in Our Heads” and “Leaders and the Rank and File” (From Public Opinion, 1922)
CD - 4 Ben Page and Robert Shapiro (1993), “The Rational Public and Democracy” 
 
Week of September 17th

The next section examines linkages between leaders and followers

   
Class Meeting 4 - The role of Symbols in Politics: Linking leaders and followers
 
  Murray Edelman, The Symbolic Uses of Politics, chs. 1, 2, 4
   
Class Meeting 5
 
  Murray Edelman, The Symbolic Uses of Politics, chs. 5, 6
 
Week of September 24th
   
Class Meeting 6 - No class
 
Class Meeting 7 – Is opinion stable or volatile?
 
  Murray Edelman, The Symbolic Uses of Politics, chs. 8 - conclusion
CD - 5 David Sears (1993), “Symbolic Politics: A Social-Psychological Theory”
 
Week of October 1st

Perhaps the most enduring anchor in American politics is partisanship – the general inclination to readily self-identify as Republican or Democratic. Where does this identification come from and what role does it play in public opinion and politics more generally?
   
Class Meeting 8 - Partisanship and its formation
 
  CD - 6 Richard Niemi and M. Kent Jennings (1991), “Issues and Inheritance in the Formation of Party Identification”
CD - 7 Philip E. Converse (1996),“The Concept of the Normal Vote”
CD - 8 Philip E. Converse (1996), “Information Flow and the Stability of Partisan Attitudes”
 
Class Meeting 9 – Partisanship cont’d
 
  CD - 9 Norman Nie, Sidney Verba and John Petrocik (1976),“ The Decline of Partisanship”
CD - 10 Warren Miller (1991), “Party Identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to the Basics”
CD - 11 Wendy Rahn (1993), “The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidates”
 
Week of October 8th
   
Class Meeting 10 - Core American Values
 
    CD - 12 Stanley Feldman (1988), “Structure and Consistency in Public Opinion: the Role of Core Beliefs and Values”
  CD - 13 Philip Pollock, Stuart Lilie, and M. Elliot Vittes (1993) “Hard Issues, Core Values and Vertical Constraint: The Case of Nuclear Power”

How about studying public opinion? How is it done? What problems have to be dealt with to study public opinion?
   
Class Meeting 11
 
    CD - 14 John Zaller and Stanley Feldman (1992), “A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering Questions versus Revealing Preferences.”
 
Week of October 15th - Midterm Examination
   
Class Meeting 12 - midterm examination
 
Week of October 23rd
   
Class Meeting 13
 
  CD - 15 Chapter 7: Sampling
CD - 16 iPOLL Manual
CD - 17 Barbara Allen, Paula O’Loughlin, Amy Jasperson, and John L. Sullivan (1994), “The Meida and the Gulf War: Framing, Priming, and the Spiral of Silence.”

The next topic we consider is the dynamics of public opinion. When do people act in concert and what forces are consequential in shaping opinion Here we have two different influential views. Can you readily discern the differences between Zaller and Gamson?
   
Class Meeting 14
 
    John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, chs. 1-5.
Week of October 29th
   
Class Meeting 15
 
    John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, chs. 6-7.
   
Class Meeting 16
 
    John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, chs. 8-9.
 
Week of November 5th
   
Class Meeting 17
 
    John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, chs. 10 (optional), 11,12.
   
Class Meeting 18
 
    William Gamson, Talking Politics, chs. 1-6.
Week of November 12th
   
Class Meeting 19
 
    William Gamson, Talking Politics, chs. 7-10.

Perhaps no other political office has more responsibility and is watched more closely both within and without the United States. How do Americans judge the Presidency? How does the ebb and flow of events influence the public and its assessment of the President? We turn to that subject next.
   
Class Meeting 20
 
    Richard Brody, Assessing the President, chs. 1-3
 
Week of November 19th
   
Class Meeting 21
 
    Richard Brody, Assessing the President, chs. 4-6
   
Class Meeting 22
 
    Richard Brody, Assessing the President, chs. 8-9
 
Week of November 26th

Summing up: What does public opinion matter in a democracy? What does democracy require of public opinion? What do we demand of and expect of a democracy? What do we mean by democracy?
   
Class Meeting 23 - Roundtable on the role of public opinion in democracy
 
    CD - 18 John Dryzek and Jeffrey Berejikian (1993), “Reconstructive Democratic Theory”
CD - 19 John Mueller (1992), “Democracy and Ralph's Pretty Good Grocery: Elections, Equality, and the Minimal Human Being”
 
Week of December 3rd
   
Class Meeting 24
 
    CD - 20 Robert Shapiro (1998), “Public Opinion, Elites, and Democracy”
CD - 21 Michael MacKuen, George E. Marcus, and W. Russell Neuman (2001), “Affective Intelligence, Voting, and Matters of Public Policy”
   
Class Meeting 25 - Conclusion and Summary: Course Evaluation

 

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Required reading for the course and books to be purchased at Water Street Books:

Course Packet to be obtained at place and times to be announced. The materials in the course packet are noted in the daily readings as CD (course document).


Murray Edelman, The Symbolic Uses of Politics - University of Illinois Press

John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion – Cambridge University Press

William A. Gamson, Talking Politics – Cambridge University Press

Richard Brody, Assessing the President - Stanford University Press

 

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Supplemental Reading: Classic Sources on American Public Opinion

W. Lance Bennett (1980) Public Opinion in American Politics Harcourt Brace and Jovanovich

M. Margaret Conway (1985) Political Participation in the United States Congressional Quarterly Press

Murray Edelman (1977) Political Language: Words that Succeed and Policies that Fail Academic Press

Murray Edelman (1971) Politics as Symbolic Action Academic Press

Benjamin Ginsburg (1986) The Captive Public: How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power Basic Books

Louis Hartz (1955) The Liberal Tradition in America Harcourt, Brace

Richard Hofstadter (1972) The American Political Tradition Vintage

Elihu Katz and Paul Lazarsfeld (1955) Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communications Free Press

V.O. Key, Jr. (1961) Public Opinion and American Democracy Alfred A. Knopf

Seymour M. Lipset and William Schneider (1983) The Confidence Gap: Business, Labor and Government in the Public Mind Free Press

Herbert McClosky and John Zaller (1984) The American Ethos: Public Attitudes toward Capitalism and Democracy Harvard University Press

Howard Schuman, Charlotte Steeh and Lawrence Bobo (1985) Racial Attitudes in America: Trends and Interpretations Harvard University Press

Michael Delli Carpini, and Scott Keeter (1996). What Americans know about politics and why it matters. Yale University Press

Jennifer Hochschild (1981). What's fair? : American beliefs about distributive justice Harvard University Press

Jennifer Hochschild (1995). Facing up to the American dream : race, class, and the soul of the nation Princeton University Press

Alexis de Tocqueville (1966) Democracy in America Doubleday

Sidney Verba and Gary Orren (1985) Equality in America: The View from the Top Harvard University Press

Raymond Wolfinger and Steven Rosenstone (1980) Who Votes? Yale University Press

 

[introduction] [grading] [reading] [books] [supplemental reading]

[course home]